野村在报告中解析中国三季度GDP的供给端分项数据。制造业以及批发零售、住宿餐饮是整体增速温和回升的主要拉动，其中制造业受益于出口高景气和能源供给扰动缓解；但批发零售的反弹与月度零售数据低迷、CPI偏弱的走势相悖，需谨慎看待。金融业明显放缓，股市交投降温与信贷需求走弱共同拖累，银行盈利仍面临压力。建筑业与房地产业继续收缩，实际恶化程度可能大于GDP数据所反映的情况，新开工、销售与竣工等月度指标同步走弱，与固定资产投资数据存在明显不一致；报告认为基建与地产投资数据的质量值得质疑。交通运输仓储邮政在出口带动下保持较强增长，信息传输与租赁商务服务业增速仍居各行业前列。GDP平减指数维持低位正增长，主要由制造业以及油气、芯片等外部价格推动。基于上述数据，野村上调了今年四季度及2026年全年增长预测，但仍预计2027年增速低于市场一致预期。
Nomura analyses the NBS supply-side breakdown of China's Q3 GDP. The moderate rebound in headline growth was driven mainly by manufacturing and wholesale & retail sales, with manufacturing supported by the export boom and easing energy-supply disruptions. The pickup in wholesale & retail sales should be viewed with caution given stagnant monthly retail sales and subdued CPI inflation. The financial sector slowed markedly as stock trading cooled and credit demand weakened, with bank profitability likely to stay under pressure. Construction and real estate continued to contract, and the actual deterioration may be more acute than the GDP figures suggest, as monthly new home sales, starts and completions all weakened and remain inconsistent with FAI data. Transport, storage & post stayed strong on booming exports, while IT-related and leasing & business services posted the highest growth rates. The GDP deflator remained modestly positive, driven mainly by manufacturing and external prices