松发股份 (603268.SH): Guangdong Songfa - A: Positive newsflow reinforces OW: Maersk containership order, LNG carrier plans and new earnings streams

We rate Guangdong Songfa Overweight and retain it as our top pick among Chinese shipbuilders. We forecast a 61% NPAT CAGR over 2026-28, driven by the ramp-up of Phases 3 and 4, higher utilization, an improving vessel mix and increasing vertical integration. The existing orderbook supports our shipbuilding delivery forecasts of 2.1mn/4.1mn/5.8mn CGT in 2026/27/28, while earlier delivery slots and relationships with leading global shipowners support further market share gains. Engines are also becoming a second earnings platform, with annual capacity expected to increase from 180 units currently to 300 units in 2027, and external sales extending beyond Songfa’s internal requirements. Our forecasts retain upside from a stronger high-value vessel mix, engine capacity beyond 300 units and a potential LNG carrier breakthrough.