截至STOXX 600三季度财报季完成75%,销售、盈利、超预期比例与指引调整均表现强劲。盈利同比增长27%,超市场一致预期8%,也高于德银自身预测3%,为2024年一季度以来最强,约三分之二公司超预期。分行业看,能源盈利同比翻倍以上、超预期11%,为最大正贡献;银行增长12%但超预期幅度收窄至3%;科技增长78%、超预期20%;仅工业与汽车不及预期,汽车盈利下滑49%。销售额同比增长12%,除汽车外各行业均为正增长,需求韧性与定价能力推动利润率升至13.5%的历史新高。指引方面,上调比例35%、下调11%,为2024年一季度以来次高,上调主因需求与收入动能,下调多为公司特定或事件驱动。全年盈利预测自上次财报季以来上调1%,当前隐含全年增长17%(剔除能源10%),四季度增速有望进一步加快。
At 75% through the STOXX 600 Q3 earnings season, sales, earnings, beats and guidance adjustments have been strong. Earnings growth stands at 27% year on year, beating consensus by 8% and Deutsche Bank's own forecast by 3% – the strongest result since Q1-24 and well above the 4% long-term average, with two-thirds of companies exceeding expectations. Energy was the main positive contributor, with earnings more than doubling year on year and beating estimates by 11%; banks grew 12% with the beat rate decelerating to 3%; technology rose 78% and exceeded consensus by 20%. Only Industrials and Autos missed, with Autos earnings down 49%. Sales rose 12% year on year and were broadly in line, and resilient demand plus pricing power pushed margins to a record high of 13.5%. Guidance upgrades (35%) continued to outnumber downgrades (11%), the second-highest ratio since at least Q1-24, driven mainly by demand and revenue momentum. Full-year estimates have been raised 1% since the previous season,