DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR.NA): A Better Blend

After what initially appeared to be a disappointing 3Q print, there was a lot to like about DSFIR's update last week: OSG momentum remains strong into 4Q26/FY27 with no expectation for an unwind of 1H26 stocking impacts, and margin looks well underpinned by pricing, cost saves and more manageable than feared inflation. Order timing dented performance of the TTH division that missed expectations in 3Q, part of which should come back in 4Q, and further cash return sounds likely in the new year. All this leads to consensus needing to come up 3-4% on adj EBITDA over 2027-2029e we think. The company is delivering more like Givaudan and we expect it to remain more closely valued to it too. Fragrance improvement story in play: the company has delivered double digit growth in Fine Fragrances so far YTD, on par with Givaudan's strength and meaningfully ahead of the next largest FF peers, IFF and Symrise; double digit growth in Consumer Fragrance is even slightly ahead of Givaudan. Our estimates