本报告为野村亚洲（除日本）外汇策略交易报告，核心是维持做多新台币兑韩元（TWD/KRW）头寸，目标价45.0，期限至11月底，信心度4/5，入场日为2026年9月17日，并设置42.20止损（接近近期低点）。报告认为，台湾与韩国在证券/直接投资资金流动动态及官方外汇立场上的分化将支撑该头寸：韩当局对韩元升值愈发担忧（8月外汇储备创纪录环比累积、国民年金公团在韩元上涨时停止外汇对冲、以及韩国在3500亿美元投资协议下首次对美投资），且若韩国存储股持续大涨，可能引发外资基金因欧盟UCITS单一持股10%上限而加速资金外流；台湾方面则因央行对汇率波动干预相对有限、寿险业对冲比率偏低，以及台股表现与美元兑台币关系更传统而相对有利。同时全球层面美元短期走强风险（9月FOMC偏鹰、能源价格高企、10年期美债收益率可能上行）或使美元兑韩元涨幅大于美元兑台币。
We maintain a long TWD/KRW position. Divergences between Taiwan and Korea across portfolio/direct investment flow dynamics and official FX stances should support the position. We added long USD/KRW to our watch list (conviction level: 2/5) on 11 September as we saw evidence of Korean authorities becoming more concerned over KRW appreciation (record month-on-month FX reserve accumulation in August, news on Korea's NPS halting FX hedging on KRW gains and Korea's first investment into the US under the USD350bn investment deal). Another consideration was a scenario in which a strong rally in Korea memory stock prices eventually leads to an acceleration in portfolio outflows from foreign funds subject to EU UCITS regulations (10% single stock concentration limit). On 17 September, we initiated a long TWD/KRW position given positives around TWD from relatively limited smoothing of FX volatility by the CBC, the asymmetry around Taiwan lifers' FX hedging (low hedge ratios) and a more tradition