Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS): Latest Thoughts & Model Update

J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS). With recent pipeline disappointments in the rear view, the IONS story is cleanly focused on the Tryngolza launch. Even after those setbacks would presumably have been priced in, the stock has acted heavy over the past ~2 weeks (-23% vs XBI -3%), and investors have questioned management's tone on Tryngolza's early launch; JPM believes IONS remains very confident on the long-term opportunity and views the measured commentary as expectations management rather than hesitation around delivering this year's $100mm-110mm Tryngolza guidance. IONS notes that third-party Rx data is unreliable, physician education takes time, and translating physician enthusiasm into treated patients on covered drug also takes time. JPM's 2026 Tryngolza estimate of $101mm is essentially steady ($18mm for 3Q and $52mm for 4Q), with 2027 US Tryngolza sales modeled at $418mm. The Dec-2027 price target is lowered to $70 from $76, largely on t