Ferrovial NV (FER.MC): I-24 clarification improves visibility on concession economics

Citi notes that Ferrovial provided additional disclosure on the I-24 Southeast Choice Lanes project. Management clarified that the previously disclosed $24.8bn concession value combines nominal and present-value components and equates to about $21bn on a consistent present-value basis. The update also confirmed $7.7bn of payments to TDOT during the 2027-33 construction phase, a maximum 75/25 debt-equity financing structure under the TIFIA term sheet, and a revenue-sharing mechanism that applies only if returns exceed the base case. While the clarification strengthens confidence in the project's scale and financing, key details remain outstanding, including sponsor equity commitments, base-case IRRs, traffic and toll assumptions, and the split between construction and concession value creation. Citi believes the share price reaction reflects improved visibility on project economics and maintains its Neutral rating with a €59.50 target price, implying a 35.2% expected total return.