Beach Energy Ltd (BPT.AX): Risk Reward Update

We lift our BPT price target to A$1.00/share (+7c/share) after incorporating BPT's 1Q27 result including adjusted NWS overlift and LNG cargo timing; BPT's farm-in to ~1.7Tcfe of tight gas and condensate resource in the Taroom Trough owned by Elixir Energy (EXR.AX, not covered) announced on 23 October 2026 (subject to customary completion conditions) (+3cps); and a mark to market for commodity prices in the Dec-26 and Mar-27 quarters. We lift our bull case to A$1.66/share (+16c/share) incorporating upside from BPT's potential additional resource cover, and lower our bear case to A$0.46/share (-2c/share) as BPT's Waitsia LNG contract skews to oil slope pricing. EPS changes: FY27e -14.9% on lower sales volumes (NWS overlift unwind) partly offset by higher commodity prices; FY28e +1.4% on slightly higher sales;