Oscar Health Inc. (OSCR) Investor Day Recap: Compelling 2027-2029 Growth Targets But Multi-Year MLR Improvement Plan Embeds Execution Risk

During its 2026 Investor Day held in NYC on 9/16, OSCR outlined a new 3-year framework to drive a 20%+ revenue CAGR, 5-7% operating margins, and $4+ adjusted EPS in 2029, while indicating the company should exceed its prior 2027 targets of 20%+ revenue growth, 5%+ operating margins, and $2.25+ EPS. The company also increased its operating earnings guidance for 2026 by $100 million to a new range of $600-800 million based on improving full-year MLR guidance by 50-bps. While we view OSCR's 2029 revenue and EPS targets as compelling if achieved, the key source of surprise for us was the degree to which the 2029 EPS target of $4+ depends on further multi-year MLR improvement while the company simultaneously targets significant multi-year market-share gains. The 2029 framework assumes operating margin expansion of 180-280 bps, with MLR improving from ~81.5% in 2026E to ~80.0% in 2029E (~150 bps), but OSCR did not provide a detailed quantitative bridge supporting the targeted 150 bps of MLR