ConocoPhillips (COP): FCF Growth, Intact and Durable — 3Q Earnings & Estimate Revisions

Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight on ConocoPhillips (COP.N) with an unchanged price target of $159. COP reported 3Q adjusted EPS of $3.27 versus consensus of $3.04 and MS of $3.13, with cash flow per share of $6.00 versus consensus of $5.72 and MS of $5.85. The beat was driven mainly by strong realizations for both oil ($88.80, +4% vs consensus) and gas ($5.70, +11% vs consensus). Total production of 2,302 kboe/d was in line with consensus and MS, while oil volumes including bitumen of 1,204 kb/d were 1% below. Capex of $3,133 MM came in above consensus and above MS. Fourth-quarter production was guided to 2,320-2,360 kboe/d, including a previously messaged planned turnaround impact of about 20 kboe/d primarily in Equatorial Guinea, and 2026 guidance for total production (2,295-2,325 kboe/d) and capex ($12.0-12.5 B) was reiterated. Preliminary 2027 messaging points to modestly lower capital spending alongside low-single-digit underlying production growth, consistent with the multi-ye