9月电池排产出现下调：NECI将电池计划产量再下调1%（较8月底累计下调3%），ICCSINO亦小幅调整电池排产（较8月底累计约下调1%）。9月的库存管理启动时点偏早，通常这一动作发生在年末；但NCM数据显示过去4个月正极材料产量持续下调（图2）。当前库存管理主要针对EV电池（LFP正极产量甚至被上调），而产量与装机量之间不断扩大的差距将对市场情绪构成压力（上周CNESA专家电话会议预计2026年ESS电池出货量约830GWh，基本可覆盖2026与2027年的ESS装机需求）。图1显示排产调整能较好解释电池供应链个股的股价表现，并标注了2024年3-4月上海车展、2024年7-10月汽车以旧换新、2023年5-6月ESS补库、2025年7-9月ESS内部收益率改善以及2026年5月需求破坏等关键节点。
September battery scheduled production was cut: on Sep 20 NECI further cut battery scheduled production by 1% (cumulative 3% vs end-August), while ICCSINO fine-tuned its battery schedule (cumulative 1% vs end-August). Inventory management (mostly EV battery) in September looks early, as it normally happens around year-end, but NCM indicated there has been continued cathode production cut in the past 4 months (figure 2). Current inventory management is mostly on EV battery (LFP cathode even revised up) but the continuously widening gap between production and installation should weigh on sentiment (our CNESA expert call last week suggested 2026 ESS battery shipment to be 830GWh, can mostly cover ESS installation in 2026 and 2027). Figure 1 shows schedule revision well explains battery supply chain share performance, with key events including the 2024 Mar-Apr SH Auto Show, 2024 Jul-Oct Cash for clunker, 2023 May-Jun ESS restocking, 2025 Jul-Sep ESS IRR improvement and May 2026 demand dest