Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 3Q26 Deliveries Preview

Tesla stock continues to face many cross currents. While 3Q deliveries are tracking softer than expected, we would not expect the stock to move too much outside the extremes. Investor focus continues to be on the deployment of Robotaxi/Cybercab, progress on Optimus, and the path to a potential SpaceX combination. We forecast 3Q26 deliveries of ~465k, down 3% QoQ from 480k in 2Q26 and down 6% YoY from the tax-credit-inflated 497k in 3Q25. By region: US/N. America ~153k with supply constrained as Model Y L deliveries only began in September; Europe ~70k hinging on September performance; China retail ~135k, the biggest drag, as Tesla added its first cash discounts in ~20 months (RMB10k off Model Y, RMB5k off Model 3). We model 3Q auto GM ex-credits of 16.0% (-30bp QoQ), 3Q revenue of $27.2bn and $0.33 EPS, with FCF expected at -$5.6bn. We maintain our Buy rating and $420 price target.