Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMRX.US): g-Lanreotide approved - much awaited catalyst to unlock next leg of growth

UBS Fast Take on Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMRX.US). The FDA approves AMRX's 120 mg/0.5 mL strength, which covers 95% of the market versus Ipsen's 60 mg/0.2 mL, 90 mg/0.3 mL and 120 mg/0.5 mL. We model rapid uptake and ~$220m peak sales given limited competition; the company has the inventory and capacity to meet expected demand. We forecast revenues of US$3,153m/3,492m/4,091m and diluted EPS of US$1.02/1.30/1.51 for 12/26E-12/28E, with EBIT margin rising from 22.6% to 24.1%. Our price target is based on an 18x P/E multiple applied to our 2027E EPS, underpinned by a conservative PEG of 1.0x and our 5-yr forward EPS CAGR of 18%. We maintain a Buy rating with a 12m price target of US$25.00, implying 36.8% forecast price appreciation. Downside risks include slower than expected adoption of Crexont and Brekiya, failure to secure or delays in approvals for new generics and biosimilars, and further deterioration in generic pricing dynamics.