本报告为野村全球市场研究部在9月FOMC会议后发布的外汇与利率策略报告，由Craig Chan等全球外汇策略及亚洲利率策略团队撰写。报告认为本次FOMC结果偏鹰派，加息决定一致通过，主席沃什强调通胀风险，使野村对货币政策路径的基线判断面临进一步上行的可能。尽管中期对美元看空，但短期内对做空美元持谨慎态度：后续数据依赖性强、中东地缘紧张推升能源价格、长端美债收益率上行未遭遇国债市场明显抵抗，以及美元多头头寸存在积累风险，不过外汇干预风险会限制美元上行空间。策略上，报告下调做空美元建议的信心水平并设置止损，调整为长期做空美元兑韩元、做多美元兑加元，并继续持有做空美元兑人民币与英镑兑澳元头寸；亚洲利率方面维持支付5年期泰铢利率，新增支付5年期新元、收取10年期港元的相对价值交易，并建议构建收益率曲线趋平的头寸，整体倾向在亚洲利率上选择性支付并配合相对价值交易。
This note presents Nomura's FX and rates strategy thoughts following the September FOMC. The outcome was viewed as hawkish, with a unanimous hike and Chair Warsh emphasizing inflation, tilting the balance of risks toward more tightening than the house baseline. Although Nomura remains negative on USD over the medium term, it is cautious on fading USD strength in the near term given the data-dependent October FOMC, Middle East tensions supporting energy prices, the rise in long-end US yields not yet met with strong resistance from the US Treasury, and risks of long USD accumulation — though USD upside should be limited by FX intervention risk. Accordingly, conviction on short USD recommendations has been reduced, stop-losses implemented, and the desk has initiated long USD/KRW and shifted into long USD/CAD with a high-conviction pay Dec-5Y Thailand, while recommending pay Dec-5Y SGD versus Dec-10Y HKD and building flattener exposure.