摩根士丹利全球主题策略（北美）研报认为，企业确实正在采用开放权重模型。3Q26 CIO调查显示，约45%的企业已部署开放权重模型，预计三年内翻倍至约90%；当前仅8%的AI工作负载运行于开放权重模型，三年内有望升至19%。采用情况在各公司规模间大体一致，营收超150亿美元的大型企业预计将成为最高采用者。医疗、制造、金融、能源等高监管或边缘场景行业当前采用率领先，零售与科技三年内增幅最大。48%能评估Token支出回报的CIO称回报仍低于支出，43%已实施AI支出管控（预计2027年底升至75%）。美国企业愿在美国基础设施上部署中国模型，但地缘政治风险仍存。近45%硬件专家预计未来12个月将有部分工作负载因AI回归本地，主因安全隐私、数据主权与降低Token成本。报告以"世界三种状态"框架（闭源获胜、混合、开源获胜）指导选股。
Our 3Q26 CIO Survey shows ~45% of enterprises are using open-weights models today, expected to rise to ~90% in three years, and open-weights models represent 8% of overall workloads today rising to 19% in three years. Adoption is consistent across company size, with the largest enterprises ($15B+ revenue) expected to be the highest adopters. Highly-regulated or edge-focused industries lead current adoption, while Retail and Tech are expected to see the largest increases. ~48% of CIOs able to assess ROI see returns below token spend, and 43% have spending controls in place (expected to reach 75% by end-2027). US companies are willing to deploy Chinese open-weights models on US infrastructure, though geopolitical uncertainty remains. ~45% of hardware experts expect some workload repatriation on-prem due to security/privacy, data sovereignty, and lower token costs. We outline a "3 States of the World" framework—closed models win, hybrid wins, open models win—for stock picks.