Moderna Inc (MRNA.O): Oncology optimism is more than priced in; Downgrade to Sell, $80 TP

We're downgrading MRNA shares to Sell/HR from Neutral/HR following an outsized run (+222%; XBI index: -2%; S&P500: flat) since INTerpath-001's interim topline. While intismeran could become a market leading therapy in melanoma, we believe the re-rating now reflects successful expansion in many tumor types and unrealistic implied sales. Indeed, we struggle to justify the valuation through public-company comparisons or pipeline NPV. Moderna's ~$80B market cap approximates Regeneron's despite materially lower expected revenue and earnings. On NPV, assigning 100% PoS to intismeran's lead oncology programs supports only ~$100/sh, or 50% below current levels. Reaching ~$200/sh requires ~$26B in annual oncology sales ($13B to Moderna), nearly 7x our model. Overall, we believe that based on aggressive implied sales and unrealistic PoS assumptions, the current valuation is unjustifiable with a negatively skewed risk/reward profile. TP now $80 (from $60).