US Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry: 3Q Preview - Growth in rough water

This note provides our detailed third-quarter outlook for 32 of the 40 companies in our Multi-Industry coverage universe. Despite significant macroeconomic volatility and rising oil prices, we expect estimates to move higher for nearly the entire group. Demand remains resilient, and most companies are offsetting new cost pressures through productivity gains and pricing. We also expect tariff refunds to support profit margins. Risks remain, but we have maintained or raised estimates for 75% of the companies previewed in this note. We estimate average organic growth of 10% across our coverage universe, consistent with 2Q growth but representing a 100-basis-point acceleration on a two-year stacked basis. Growth at companies with limited exposure to data-center construction is holding at 5%, compared with 2% at this time last year, and we see no evidence of slowing fundamentals among companies exposed to AI-related industrials. Where we are most positive: JCI and EMR will both provide fisc