China Auto Manufacturers — Weichai-Sinotruk/CAT/CMI & Macro Tracker (8-Oct): AIDC downstream outperforming upstream

Downstream AI Data Centre (AIDC) equipment manufacturers (like GNRC/BE) have outperformed upstream manufacturers (like Weichai/CAT/CMI) recently, likely due to differences in revenue elasticity, margin capture, and regulatory & policy timeline/uncertainty on AIDC. AIDC upstream already appears to have de-rated much earlier than downstream (notably CAT and CMI share prices have returned to levels seen in beginning of 2026). 4Q26E HDT outlook: According to CV World, 4Q HDT export (Sinotruk's core business) volume QoQ should be stable (YoY positive), but domestic demand in 4Q26 could decline by -16% YoY, which could affect earnings visibility for both Weichai and Sinotruk. 4Q NEV-HDT could sustain its growth momentum and deliver 11% YoY growth and full year NEV penetration rate could reach 40-41%, per CV World. We estimate that YTD Weichai's share price has on average been 14.2% below our AIDC/SOFC/AI weighted index, with 1SD at 10.4ppt. Weichai's share price has risen +5% so far in Octob