Konami: Winner stays on - buy the World Cup reset

Konami is our top pick in Japan video gaming. The shares have had a middling year and lagged peers during the recent sector recovery, but we think they now offer the best risk-reward in our coverage. Management commentary, the high-frequency data we track, and comparisons with trading patterns during the Qatar World Cup in 2022 all point to a durable turn in the post-tournament cycle for eFootball billings. The post-World Cup reset is done: Sensor Tower data points to eFootball monthly billings and ARPDAU normalising down to trend-line levels, with September billings reflective of low promotional activity. There is good news elsewhere too, including Silent Hill Townfall, Castlevania and Yu-Gi-Oh. Lower mobile platform fees will continue to be a tailwind for earnings. We rate Konami Outperform (PT JPY28,200).