Q3'26 Preview: Framing the AI Segment Operating Backdrop & Increasing Operating Estimates Ahead of Earnings

Ahead of SpaceX's (SPCX.US) Q3 2026 earnings, Goldman Sachs refreshes and raises its AI segment forecasts across capacity, revenue and margins, drawing on recent company deal activity, public statements, and progress in key enterprise use cases and model developments. The team believes AI segment estimates still look relatively conservative versus Street estimates over the next 6-18 months absent a correction across the broader AI operating landscape. The preview is framed around three key investor debates: the pace and visibility of the terrestrial compute build-out, the level of monetization (revenue per GW) that SpaceX can generate on terrestrial compute, and how recent Starship launches affect both the Connectivity and AI businesses;