Apsara Conference 2026 Takeaways (1) - AI Infra to Reach 20GW By 2032

Citi's preliminary view is that Alibaba CEO Mr. Wu's message of 20GW AI infra by 2032 (or our view of FY2033) could translate to US$160bn external cloud revenues by FY2033, implying incremental US$60bn from our current estimate of US$100bn in FY2031. This also suggests revenue CAGR of ~40% from FY2026 to FY2033, implying fast growth momentum is sustained. While Alibaba has not provided an update to its Rmb380bn capex guidance, we believe capex spend could remain at a high level in coming years, and we expect a portion of the infrastructure capacity to be supported by collaboration with industry partners at the OPEX level. At the conference, Alibaba said AI development is heading towards ASI with diverse applications such as vibe coding and long-horizon tasks;