ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS): Expect Earnings to Tick Up

ASML prints 3Q26 results Wednesday 14th October. We see upside risk for 2026/2027 estimates, but visibility on 2028 remains unclear. We expect ASML to beat the upper end of the Q3 guide, but think market focus will again be on capacity and China commentary. We think ASML could deliver another positive surprise this quarter, as consensus underestimates near-term strength across both memory and logic foundries. Market sentiment on the stock has remained subdued (trading down c.20% this quarter) amid capacity concerns and the perceived competitive threat from China, which we view as overdone. Our Q3 sales estimate of €12.3bn is c.5% above consensus at €11.7bn and exceeds the upper end of management's guidance, driving our quarterly EPSe to €11.75, c.8% above the Street's €10.84 estimate. We raise our 2026 Sales/EPS estimates by 4/7% respectively and 2027 Sales/EPS estimates by 9/14%, with 2028 Sales/EPS up 7/10%;