本报告为德意志银行全球资产配置团队关于投资者仓位与资金流向的策略更新。报告指出，近期股市呈现轮动、区间震荡与急速补涨行情交替的特征，投资者在繁荣与悲观之间反复切换。德银于2026年7月底提出资金轮动回流科技股，为两年内第五次；目前轮动已较充分但仍有一定空间：Mega-cap Growth（大盘成长股）与科技股自7月底以来上涨14%并创历史新高，而标普500其余成分股同期下跌3%，其相对表现已升至长期趋势通道上半区，但尚未触及顶部。仓位方面，MCG与科技股仓位约为中性上方0.8个标准差（第80百分位），明显超配但远低于6月初近2个标准差（第99百分位）的高点；防御性与周期性板块仓位多为中性或略低于中性，仅能源小幅超配。大盘股整体仓位本周上升，处于超配但不算极端（第79百分位）；系统化策略仓位升至第91百分位，易受波动率冲击；
A notable feature of equities recently has been a series of rotations, ranges and sharp catch-up rallies, as investors alternate between the boom and the gloom, with unprecedented earnings growth on the one hand and battling a slew of negative catalysts and fears on the other. In late July, we called for a rotation back into Tech, the 5th in 2 years. The rotation is now advanced but still has some room to run. MCG & Tech stocks are up 14% since the end of July to a new record high, while the rest of the S&P 500 is down -3% since. The relative outperformance of MCG & Tech has risen to the upper half of its long-run trend channel but is not yet at the top. Positioning in MCG & Tech has risen to about 0.8sd (80th percentile) above neutral, clearly overweight but well below prior peaks such as in early June when it topped out almost 2sd above (99th percentile). Positioning elsewhere is neutral or modestly below, for both defensive and cyclical sectors (with a modest overweight for Energy t