JSW Steel (JSTL.BO): Q2FY27 Results Review: Sustained focus on capacity growth is a major differentiator; maintain Buy

Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on JSW Steel (JSTL.BO) after Q2FY27 results, raising its 12-month target price to INR 1,545/share (from INR 1,525), implying ~30% upside. Q2FY27 beat GS and Bloomberg consensus across all parameters: EBITDA rose 42% YoY to INR 101.2bn (8% above consensus), India sales volume rose 16.5% YoY to 7.3mt, EBITDA/t rose 33.6% YoY to INR 13,341, and net debt fell 3.6% QoQ to INR 444.8bn (net debt/EBITDA of 1.28x). Management announced INR 290bn of incremental capex and approved a 5mtpa Phase-II expansion at JSW Utkal, targeting commissioning by Q1FY31. The company is focused on all three pillars of GS's valuation framework - capacity, raw material security and logistics - with a 50mtpa capacity target by FY31. GS raises FY27E/FY28E EBITDA by 2.5%/1.2%. Key downside risks: steel price cyclicality, leverage increase in a downturn, and delays in raw material security and capacity expansion.