报告分析中国2026年8月经济活动数据，认为经济失衡加剧。8月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，高于市场预期的4.8%和野村预期的4.7%（7月为4.5%），主要受出口强劲（同比增25.0%）、供给扰动缓解及天气影响减弱推动。社会消费品零售总额增速由7月的0.6%放缓至0.4%，低于预期的0.8%，以CPI为平减指数计算的实际零售增速转为-0.4%。固定资产投资同比下滑10.6%，为连续第五个月收缩，其中制造业投资降至-6.1%、基建投资-14.8%，民间投资维持-14.5%的低迷水平。房地产投资同比下降25.4%，新开工、竣工、到位资金等指标继续恶化，房价环比续跌，一线城市回暖动能减弱。
August activity data were mixed. Industrial production (IP) growth increased to a higher-than-expected 5.2% y-o-y (Consensus: 4.8%; Nomura: 4.7%) in August from 4.5% in July. Retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% y-o-y in August from 0.6% in July, falling below market consensus of 0.8% but closer to our forecast of 0.5%. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth stayed sharply negative at -10.6% y-o-y in August (July: -12.8%), below market consensus of -9.8% but close to our forecast of -10.9%. Beijing appears to have become increasingly concerned about growth prospects. However, we expect the boost from these policy easing measures to be moderate, and we maintain our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 4.3% for Q3 and 4.5% for Q4, especially in view of the worsening fiscal contraction. We expect the Street to cut what we view as overly optimistic growth forecasts for Q3 (consensus is at 4.5%). We expect Beijing, under increasing pressure to deliver on its growth target, to unveil more suppo