SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper

Adjusted for growth, SpaceX is one of the cheaper ways to play the strong optionality of the Space and Intelligence Economy. Investors still have a few weeks to 'catch' the opportunity before Flight 15. At $159, SpaceX looks expensive on headline EV/EBIT (~30x 2028e vs. ~16x for other mega cap AI enablers). However, adjusted for y/y growth, SpaceX trades at just ~0.3x 2028e EV/EBIT/Growth, ~40% below the ~0.5x mega cap median. Even at our $300 price target, SpaceX would trade at ~0.6x EV/EBIT/Growth, roughly in line with Amazon (0.5x) and below Alphabet (0.7x) and Meta (0.8x). At the current $159/share, we believe SpaceX stock prices in most or all of the Space & Connectivity opportunity ($127/share in our model), leaving just $32 for AI. We rate the stock Overweight with a $300 price target. Catalysts to watch include Starship Flight 15 and 16, 3Q earnings, Grok 4.8/4.9/5.0 releases, and further neocloud deals. Downside risks include slower Starship reuse cadence, slower Starlink subs