巴克莱发布关于Rivian Automotive（RIVN，纳斯达克上市）2026年第三季度（3Q26）业绩的前瞻性点评。核心观点：三季度因R2车型爬坡成本被市场视为"噪音季"，但RIVN三季度交付1.92万辆超市场预期的1.76万辆（预计R2约7000辆），主要由EDV车型驱动。我们认为RIVN业绩有望超预期：预计三季度EBITDA为-5.3亿美元（好于市场预期的-5.71亿美元），单车成本（COGS）约8.8万美元、环比下降约9000美元，主要受益于R2占比提升带来的单位物料成本（BoM）下降及固定成本摊薄；预计单车均价（ASP）约7.7万美元、环比下降约1.7万美元，因R2销量占比由二季度约3%升至约36%。2026年指引（交付6.5-7万辆、EBITDA -20亿至-18亿美元）预计维持不变。
Barclays previews Rivian Automotive's (RIVN, Nasdaq-listed) 3Q26 earnings. Key takes: 1. R2 demand in focus, questions on current volumes, TAM size, backlog strength; 2. We expect a beat — COGS likely down q/q on higher R2 mix and better fixed cost absorption; 3. '26 EBITDA guide likely maintained; 4. We expect upside to the stock amid weak sentiment; 5. AI Day in focus. 3Q is widely viewed as a noisy quarter, with incremental R2 ramp costs expected to drag results despite the 3Q delivery beat (19.2k units vs consensus 17.6k, ~7k R2). We are ahead of consensus, forecasting 3Q EBITDA of -$530mn vs consensus -$571mn, gross profit of $12mn and gross margin of 0.5%. We expect COGS/vehicle of $88k (down ~$9k q/q) and ASPs of $77k (down ~$17k q/q) reflecting R2 mix of ~36% vs ~3% in 2Q. FY26 delivery guidance of 65-70k and EBITDA guide of -$2.0bn to -$1.8bn should be reiterated. Other points: R2 demand/TAM debate, tech licensing deals (VW/Uber funding up to ~$6.75bn), autonomy as a "show me"