US Rates Weekly: Pension plan for 20s?

We remain neutral on duration despite this week's strong 10y auction, finding little evidence that two consecutive strong 10y auctions mark an end of the current mini-buyers' strike. Ahead of next week's CPI report, we remain positioned for the FOMC to keep rates unchanged at the October meeting. Treasury's dealer survey, released next Friday, could hint at a possible reduction in long-end auction sizes. Treasury Secretary Bessent may point to poor pension fund Treasury demand, perhaps caused by increased long-end corporate bond issuance, as a reason to reduce and/or cancel the 20y bond. We position for this via 10s20s spreads steepeners.