Fireside chat takeaways: Bolstering supply capacity to maintain/expand market share

J.P. Morgan hosted a fireside chat on 13 November with Group CEO Douglas Lefever and Chief Supply Chain Officer Richard Junger. Management estimates company-wide sales will grow at a 56% CAGR in FY2023-26 as tester demand expands on rising semiconductor complexity. It has revised demand forecasting from a waterfall approach based on customer forecasts to a top-down approach that anticipates future demand, and shifted inventory management from just-in-time to just-in-case. SoC tester production capacity already reached 5,000 units/year in Jul-Sep 2026, and management intends to hit its 10,000 units/year target about a year earlier than the original end-2028 to early-2029 timeframe. With SoC tester market share at 65% in CY2025, the outlook to rise to 70% is improving. Management treats inventory as a strategic asset, judging the risk of failing to meet demand to outweigh write-down risk, and is building resilience via long-term agreements, multi-sourcing of up to six suppliers per part,