Pop Mart (9992.HK): Oct-26 Performance: Sales Remain Weak; Company Actively Repurchases Shares

China online sales remained weak in Oct. Our Moojing tracker, which covers Tmall, Taobao and Douyin, recorded a 29% YoY decline, compared with a 49% decline in Sep. Absolute online sales in Oct were broadly the same vs Sep. In 3Q26, our tracker recorded a 38% YoY decline in online sales, compared with Pop Mart's reported decline of 45–50%. The gap suggests that other online channels, mainly WeChat mini programs, and product returns may have contributed to a larger decline in reported sales than in tracked GMV. Store expansion is unlikely to offset fatigue with existing IPs. Pop Mart Bakery opened its first Beijing store on 31 October, and Pop Mart continues to open larger stores in China and overseas, including a three-storey location in Hangzhou, a 700 sqm store in Chengdu and a 1,400 sqm global flagship in Paris; prime-location rents could pressure margins if store productivity falls short. New IPs and products are unlikely to offset the high base from 3Q25, with secondary-market pri