巴西央行货币政策委员会（Copom）本次会议如期将Selic利率维持在13.75%不变。摩根大通仍预计未来数次会议上Selic将保持在这一水平，但同时上调2027年利率路径：此前预计自4月起连续每次降息25个基点，现在改为预计政策利率维持在当前水平直至2027年底。报告指出，通胀预期上升且可能延续、雷亚尔贬值、通胀本已偏高、厄尔尼诺等新增冲击以及全球利率上行，都加大了未来某个时点逆转近期校准周期的风险。未来数周财政政策等信号对校准利率预期至关重要。央行并未给出前瞻指引，也未暗示即将加息，但其预测所隐含的汇率假设较当前雷亚尔水平明显偏强，通胀预期仍可能上升，模型输出的参考价值因此受限。委员会承认外部环境恶化、通胀加速、预期进一步偏离目标，同时认为经济减速快于此前预期，基线不确定性上升，需要保持谨慎。
As expected, the BCB kept the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% at the conclusion of tonight's meeting. We continue to expect the Selic to remain at 13.75% at the next few meetings, but we are now also revising up our 2027 Selic path. Previously, we had expected a cautious sequence of back-to-back 25bp cuts starting in April; we now expect the policy rate to remain stable at its current level through end-2027. We acknowledge that the rise in inflation expectations—which may continue—and the depreciation of the BRL, combined with already elevated inflation, additional inflationary shocks (such as El Nino), and rising global rates, increase the risk of a reversal of the recent calibration cycle at some point in the future. In our view, signals about the direction of economic policy—particularly fiscal policy—over the coming weeks will be critical to calibrating our policy-rate expectations. Decisions that reinforce the central bank's disinflationary objectives could help the case to keep ra