China Construction Machinery: Soft domestic demand and healthy exports in September; unchanged export tax rebate rates

China Construction Machinery Association (CCMA) data shows total excavator sales reached 22,717 units (up 14% YoY) in September 2026, with domestic sales at 9,911 units (up 7% YoY) and exports up 21% YoY. Excavator sales volume in 9M26 increased 23% YoY, with domestic sales rising 16.3% YoY and exports up 30.4% YoY. Taking into account domestic sales linked to exports, UBS believes underlying domestic demand growth is likely only in the low single digits. Total wheel loader sales rose 18% YoY to 12,419 units, with domestic sales up 14% and exports up 21% YoY. Sales of electric wheel loaders reached 4,039 units, implying an electrification penetration rate of 33% (59% domestic; 10% overseas). According to UBS Evidence Lab data, exports of China's construction machinery increased 23% YoY in value terms in August;