Could Molbreevi Score the Next R(Air) Pulmonology Approval? — Initiating Coverage at OW

We are initiating coverage of Savara Inc (SVRA) with an Overweight rating and a Dec 2027 price target of $12. Savara's lead asset is Molbreevi (molgramostim), a recombinant human GM-CSF delivered via a proprietary nebulizer for the treatment of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP), a rare lung disease caused by disruption of GM-CSF signaling by GM-CSF autoantibodies. Near-term, Savara has plenty of catalysts, including the potential approval of Molbreevi in the U.S. on or before its PDUFA date of Nov. 22, 2026, with potential approvals in the U.K. and EU expected in 4Q26 and 1Q27, respectively. Based on our model, which assumes that Molbreevi has blockbuster potential in aPAP across geographies, SVRA shares would seem to imply a roughly 50/50 likelihood of approval at this time across these geographies, which we find to be overly conservative (our POS for Molbreevi across geographies ranges from 80-90%). We believe the long-term commercial opportunity may be under-appreciat