Fox Corp — F1Q preview: core momentum + cyclical tailwinds

We expect Fox's F1Q results to reflect continued uplift from the World Cup knockout stage while core underlying momentum continues. We expect total company ad growth to remain solid, with distribution also growing, and we are updating our estimates to reflect stronger Tubi performance (management commentary suggested growth started the quarter on pace with 4Q), while our other assumptions are largely unchanged. We now expect EBITDA above prior estimates and modestly ahead of consensus. We expect cyclical tailwinds in F27 (world cup knockout stage in 1Q, mid-term elections), moderating digital losses and core momentum (ramping renewal schedule, strong cable news ads, etc.) to support full-year EBITDA. Cable: we expect continued uplift to distribution from FOX One, pricing tailwinds to ad, and higher distribution and advertising revenues to support cable EBITDA growth. TV: we expect soccer/Tubi strength, with retrans down slightly;