Coherent（COHR.US）：一季报前瞻：短期难觅毛利率催化

COHR reports F1Q27 earnings after the close on November 4. The demand backdrop remains constructive: AXTI's latest commentary reinforces persistent InP supply tightness, with demand outstripping supply, customers requesting 2-3x existing allocations and lead times extending, while management pushed back on Chinese overcapacity concerns citing visibility into '27/'28. OCP brought additional technical demonstrations but limited incremental commercial detail, raising the importance of new disclosures at earnings. We temper expectations for near-term gross margin benefits from the 6-inch ramp given initially low productivity and gradual scaling, though broader manufacturing efficiencies, yield improvements and operating leverage could still lift margins. We think the buyside looks for F1Q27 revenue of ~$2.38bn (consensus ~$2.31bn), non-GAAP GM of ~40.8% (~40.6%), non-GAAP operating margin of ~23.4% (~22.9%) and EPS of ~$2.12 (~$1.98);