2026年11月3日，中国人民银行宣布将外汇存款准备金率上调2个百分点，由4%提高至6%，11月15日起生效，这是2023年9月下调以来的首次调整，也是2021年12月以来首次上调。按当前外汇存款规模估算，此举将额外锁定约200亿美元外汇流动性。花旗认为，这是对近期人民币单边快速升值的政策回应，意在放缓升值节奏，并非要逆转升值趋势；11月2日在岸人民币升至约6.648，即期汇率与中间价的价差扩大至-680点，该水平历史上往往触发逆周期调节。参考2007年与2021年的经验，上调后90天内人民币对美元平均贬值约0.58%，但2021年同期人民币对一篮子货币仍升值约1.1%。当前贸易伙伴利率普遍高于中国，套息成本构成阻力，人民币升值更依赖企业结汇。花旗维持未来6至12个月人民币看至6.55、长期看至6.5的判断，但提示做多人民币的头寸拥挤，短期逼空风险仍存，主要风险是美元兑人民币在6.60附近筑底。
We believe the PBOC raising FX deposit RRR to 6% from 4% is mainly to slow down RMB appreciation (especially as CNY on a basket basis had reached its previous peak) but not to reverse the trend. Given the recent build-up of bullish CNH trades, there could be room for further squeeze in CNH. However, exporters are likely to take advantage of this back up to convert USD proceeds. As such, there is room for further RMB appreciation given ongoing exporter conversions. However, CNY bulls will also likely have to contend with punitive carry not just vs USD but with most of the constituents in the trade basket. On 3 November 2026, the PBOC announced that it will raise the FX deposit reserve requirement ratio by 2 percentage points, from 4% to 6%, effective 15 November 2026, which we estimate will lock up around USD 20bn additional FX liquidity. This is the first FX deposit RRR change since the PBOC cut it to 4% from 6% in Sept 2023 and the first hike since Dec 2021. We maintain our view that