F/A-XX Preview: Boeing and Northrop in a Dogfight

The DoD has selected either Boeing or Northrop as the prime contractor for the Navy's next generation F/A-XX fighter, Reuters reported recently, with an announcement expected soon. Ahead of the award, we refreshed our F/A-XX program DCF. We value the program at ~$5.5b, with EMD near term, production beginning in the early 2030s, and sustainment through 2075. Our ~$210m unit cost assumption (2027 dollars) is based on a 2020 CBO estimate of $150m in 2018 dollars and inflated through the NPV exercise. We assume procurement of 375 aircraft, though there is a wide range here, perhaps 200 to 450 depending on Navy requirements, possible international sales, and CCA capabilities. The Navy bought ~760 Super Hornets and Growlers and F-35Cs will replace over 250 of these;