Vale (VALE.N) CEO Roundtable: Iron ore in the cost curve and other takeaways

We attended Vale's Roundtable with CEO Gustavo Pimenta in London today. Much of the discussion centered around freight costs and the cost curve, with Vale seeing ~120mt at risk in the current market, with much of that from Brazil. Otherwise, Vale continues to operate well, even facing the various exogenous headwinds. Freight: Vale reiterated that freight is contracted ~75% next year and 70-75% structurally long term. Rates are around $18-20/t, based on $500/t on bunker. Spot bunker at $750/t would increase freight cost by $4/ton (based on ~$1.6/ton IO per $100/t on bunker). Bunker fuel is ~70% hedged for 2026-27, but not much beyond that. More broadly, Vale expects many new bulk vessels arriving next year, which should bring down rates, all else equal. Cost curve: $95 IO + $90 oil = ~120mt IO uneconomic in Vale's view, much of that from Brazil. Vale has ~35mt from third-party mines that will need good freight contracts for next year and ~5mt of its own production that is higher cost. T