Nanya Technology (2408.TW): Pricing reset driving upside in 3Q

Nanya Tech's July '26 revs were up 49% MoM and August 2%. Combined, July+August is equivalent to 80% of VA consensus 3Q revenue of NT$111bn, coming from both DRAM bit shipments and ASP upside. We now forecast QoQ bits up 5% vs -8% prior, and DRAM ASPs up 50% QoQ (vs. +32% prior), partly due to some 6-month to 1-year contracts which re-set last July. With niche DRAM exposure and less concentration around large clients, Nanya's DRAM ASPs are edging higher than its much larger peers. Looking into 4Q26, we forecast ASPs to increase 10% QoQ. Gross margin should improve in 3Q26 to 86.1% from 79.5% in 2Q and remain elevated throughout 2027. Nanya sees 50-60% fulfillment rate for demand currently;