Expecting a Solid 3Q; Adjusting Estimates

UBS expects Oscar Health (OSCR.US) to report 3Q26 earnings in early November. The firm is updating estimates to reflect the company's guidance update from its investor day, which took into account positive utilization trends observed through August and mirrors commentary from peer MCOs pointing to better-than-expected performance. Net, UBS's 2026-2028 EPS moves to $2.00/2.30/2.80 and it tweaks the cadencing of the model. It remains unclear if the company will see outsized upside when it reports; the company noted conservative risk adjustment assumptions that could yield upside through the year. The potential 500k program integrity checks could eat into upside if there is high disenrollment, though this is factored into the outlook. Regarding the 315k enrollments (covering 760k people) disenrolled by CMS, this was reflected within the company's guidance, which assumed 250-300k potential members would be disenrolled. UBS raises its price target to $36 (was $26) as it rolls forward to 202