Eutelsat: 1Q27 sales due 29/10 - European sovereign connectivity back in focus

Eutelsat's 1Q27 revenue release is due on Thursday, 29 October, after the Paris market close. Eutelsat shares have been volatile: they initially fell c.30% from their August high of €1.96 to an end-September low of €1.35 amid sharply higher bond yields in France, then rebounded 42% to €1.93 as Starlink's throttling of services to the Ukrainian army, whether deliberate or accidental, reignited investor interest in European satellite connectivity and put Eutelsat back in focus as the only viable non-US-controlled LEO alternative for defence and sovereign connectivity. We are comfortable with our 1Q revenue estimate of €313.4m (+6.4% LFL yoy), 5.2% ahead of consensus, in line for Video (€120m, -10% LFL yoy) and 9.1% above consensus for Connectivity. Eutelsat should reiterate its FY guidance for slight growth in Operating Verticals revenue and stable EBITDA margins. We rate the shares Market-Perform with a DCF-based PT of €2.40, implying 36% upside.