McDonald's: What's NEXT for the Golden Arches?

We expect MCD's investor day on September 23rd in Chicago will focus on: i) plans to improve US sales performance; ii) details on the McDonald's NEXT growth strategy, specifically emphasizing the four key pillars (menu, consumer, restaurant, people); iii) global unit growth expectations beyond the current target for ~50K stores globally to be achieved in '28; and iv) a refreshed long-term financial framework. We also anticipate focus on US restaurant remodel plans, including incremental capex support levels. Our discussions suggest investor expectations for the event are reasonably low, with sentiment on shares remaining more negative given concerns around pressured sales trends and a challenging industry backdrop. We lower our PT to $320 from $340 to reflect pressured QSR valuations and US sales challenges. Despite near-term US pressures, we believe risk/reward is attractive with shares at the lower end of historical valuation ranges (~18x Consensus '27 EPS). Our 3-yr outlook includes