报告点评Visa第四财季业绩：底层消费量能依旧强劲，跨境交易量增速环比重新加快，营收与利润基本符合预期；增值服务在网络安全、风险服务及Prisma收购和咨询需求带动下继续高增长，CMS业务亦保持较快扩张，收入结构进一步多元化。但公司对下一财年的指引偏谨慎：因约四分之一的支付量将在新财年进入续约窗口，客户激励支出占比明显抬升，且续约集中在上半年完成，将压低净收入增速并限制经营杠杆；叠加税率上升、非经营性费用增加以及对智能体商务、稳定币等战略投入，调整后每股收益增速较上一财年放缓。国际交易收入受汇率波动性下降及客户、产品与地域结构影响，增速落后于跨境交易量。报告认为这些因素并不代表需求走弱，只是更多收入增量被再投入业务，增长节奏更偏向下半年。维持买入评级，目标价较现价存在一定上行空间，但绝对收益幅度有限。
Visa's F4Q reinforced strong underlying consumer volumes, with a resurgence in cross-border growth rates, while top and bottom line came in essentially in line with expectations. Value Added Services remained the standout, growing 31% led by cyber and risk growth, contribution from the Prisma acquisition and advisory services. FY27 guidance was tempered due to a higher than normal amount of renewals expected in FY27, roughly a quarter of book versus a normal 15%-20%, which led to guidance of low double-digit adjusted constant-currency net revenue growth and low double-digit to low-teens adjusted EPS growth. Lower FX volatility continues to constrain international revenue and a higher tax rate adds a modest EPS headwind. With pricing benefits more weighted toward 2H, Citi sees durable revenue growth but limited near-term operating leverage. Maintain Buy with a US$440 target price.