台积电2026年三季度营收超预期。市场预期本已较高，但公司指引四季度营收环比增长14%、2026全年同比增长44%，仍超出预期。毛利率可能略有下滑，或源于保守指引，更重要的是N2需求旺盛带来一定短期拖累。资本开支将"进一步"显著高于此前：2026年资本开支指引维持600-640亿美元不变，2026-28年资本开支仍将"显著高于过去三年"，公司特别强调"进一步"提高，并重申营收增速将更快、资本开支/营收比仍将下行。CPU与网络芯片需求被重点提及，代理型CPU及对网络芯片的持续需求推动业绩。Terafab方面未达成协议，台积电确认曾讨论但坚持晶圆厂须由台积电运营。数据中心电力供应方面结论为"目前进展良好"。伯恩斯坦维持"跑赢大市"评级，目标价3300新台币。
Revenue above expectation. Expectation was high, but guiding 14% QoQ revenue increase for 4Q26 and 44% YoY for 2026 full-year still beat. Gross margin may be a tad lower but likely due to conservative guidance & more importantly better N2 demand resulting in some short-term drag. Capex will be "even more" significantly higher than before. No change to 2026 capex plan and capex in 2026-28 also remains "significantly higher than the past 3 years", but TSMC highlighted "even more" today. TSMC also reiterated revenue to grow faster & capex/revenue ratio will still trend down. CPU & networking was highlighted. TSMC sees agents & open-sourced models to drive efficiency & lower AI adoption barrier & hence good for leading-node demand. The emerging of agentic CPU & continued need for networking chips are driving further demand. No deal on Terafab. TSMC confirmed the discussion, but also adamantly said that "the fab got to be run by TSMC". "So far so good" on data center power supply. TSMC is s