韩国KOSPI指数已下跌40%，回吐前一轮牛市约一半涨幅，主要受投资者对权重存储半导体板块的担忧以及散户去杠杆放大影响。在上市公司盈利创纪录的背景下，12个月前瞻市盈率降至4倍（-3个标准差）。报告分别考察存储与非存储板块、波动率与盈利动能，认为当前市场对基本面的定价过于悲观：存储板块按历史市净率与ROE关系推算，已隐含2027年盈利下滑65%；非存储板块约占指数一半权重，NTM市盈率7.6倍（-2.1个标准差）、市净率1.1倍，相对14.2%的ROE低估超过30%。波动率接近4个标准差的飙升对应股权风险溢价上升约2个百分点，等价于市净率下修20%，可解释市场自6月高点40%跌幅的一半；盈利预测上调动能放缓亦压制估值。
Korea's headline KOSPI index has fallen 40% and retraced half its gains over the prior bull run. The decline has been driven by investor concerns over the heavyweight memory sector and amplified by retail derisking. The sharp market drop in the context of record corporate profits has brought the 12m forward P/E to 4x (-3 s.d.). We examine memory and non-memory sectors along with volatility and earnings momentum, and conclude the market is pricing an overly negative fundamental outlook. We lower our KOSPI target from 12000 to 9000 to incorporate more conservative assumptions about how the market may price underlying fundamentals but still view the market as offering attractive risk/reward at current levels. The KOSPI semiconductor sector is pricing a 65% decline in 2027 earnings at current levels based on the close historical price/book vs. ROE relationship, which appears overly negative. Non-memory sectors account for about half the index weight and trade at 7.6x NTM P/E (-2.1 s.d.) an