本报告为高盛美股周度策略报告，聚焦当前股票投资者愿意为哪些因子支付估值溢价。报告指出，宏观不确定性压制了投资者仓位与市场广度，高盛美国股票情绪指标已降至与年内市场低点相当的水平；尽管人工智能相关强势支撑标普500指数整体保持韧性，但中位数个股较其52周高点明显回落，市场广度指标降至网络泡沫以来最低位，意味着若宏观环境改善，市场存在普遍上行及落后者补涨的空间。报告认为，标普500远期市盈率已由高位回落并基本匹配其十年均值，估值收缩的原因之一是利率上升，同时市场担心人工智能投资热潮使企业相对现金流与可持续盈利水平出现「过度盈利」。利率水平与企业盈利能力将共同决定美股的合理估值倍数，企业基本面（尤其净资产收益率）对行业间估值差异的解释力升至多年高位，但估值离散度收窄使长短期价值因子的前景转弱。
Macro uncertainty has weighed on equity investor positioning and market breadth, with Goldman Sachs' US equity sentiment indicator declining to levels matching the March market low. While AI strength has kept the headline S&P 500 relatively resilient, the median stock trades well below its 52-week high, dragging market breadth to its lowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble; together these factors indicate potential for broad market upside and a "catch-up" from recent laggards if macro uncertainty declines. The S&P 500 forward P/E multiple has contracted and now matches its 10-year average, partly reflecting rising interest rates, while the lower P/E also reflects investor concerns that the AI investment boom is causing companies to "over-earn" relative to cash flows and a sustainable level of profits. Both interest rates and corporate profitability will determine the fair value multiples for US equities going forward, and corporate fundamentals—particularly ROE—explain a multi-decade hig