本报告为瑞银中国股票策略团队关于中东冲突（霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻）对市场影响的分析。报告借助UBS Evidence Lab数据考察进出波斯湾及经霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输量，分析油价相对于库存的凸性、全球增长与通胀对油价的敏感性，并给出瑞银的油气价格与宏观预测。基于布伦特原油100美元/桶的假设，报告测算其对MSCI中国/中国股票2026财年盈利及各个子行业的影响，指出上游油气、石油石化等受益，而航空、化工等成本敏感行业承压。报告还比较2022年俄乌冲突下油价的三阶段行情与当前伊朗冲突以来中国股市各板块表现，认为在停火情景下欧洲受冲击与受益更大、美国或跑赢，并给出各资产类别的关键观点（看多黄金、信用市场政策风险超过信用风险等）以及重点主题与交易建议。
This report by the UBS China Equity Strategy team examines the market implications of the Middle East conflict, focusing on the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on oil prices and Chinese equities. Using UBS Evidence Lab data on oil and gas tankers entering and exiting the Gulf and the breakdown of oil and products transiting the Strait of Hormuz by destination, UBS analyzes the convexity of oil prices to inventories and the sensitivity of global growth and inflation to oil, and presents its oil, gas and macro forecasts. Assuming a US$100/bbl Brent oil price, the team estimates the FY26 earnings impact on Chinese equities and by subsector, with upstream oil & gas and petrochemicals benefiting while cost-sensitive sectors such as airlines and chemicals are pressured. The report also compares sector performance during the three phases of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine oil shock with performance since the current Iran conflict started, argues that in a continued ceasefire scenari