Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO): Wegovy pill ex-US momentum in focus, FY26 guide likely to be narrowed up

Ahead of Novo's 3Q26 earnings on 4th November 2026, we update our model to reflect i) the latest prescription data, ii) incremental commentary from the CMD, and iii) the latest FX. Given the positive commentary at the 2Q26 results highlighting 300k patients on the wait list in the UK, and the data presented at the CMD that prescriptions in the first 10 weeks of the UK launch of the Wegovy pill had reached c.660k, ex-US (particularly EUCAN) sales will be in focus. We assume total UK Wegovy Pill prescriptions of c.790k at an average price of £100 after a 10% fee to Telehealth providers, leading to sales of DKK610m. In total, our forecast is c.4% ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus Data for the Wegovy pill. For 3Q26 earnings, our forecast is c.2% below VA consensus (GSe adj. operating profit DKK28,261m vs Cons. DKK28,874m). On FY26 guidance, we expect the bottom end of the range on both adj. sales and adj operating profit to be lifted by 2pp to 0-4% CER growth. Novo remains a 'show-me' story