BellRing Brands (BRBR): 4Q26 Preview – Inflation and Promotions Could Take a Bite out of EBITDA, but Isn't It Priced in Already?

J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight on BellRing Brands (BRBR) but lowers its Dec-2027 price target to $15 from $18. BRBR is likely to report fiscal 4Q26 (September) results in the second half of November. On strong measured consumption, a sales beat seems likely: JPM models +2.9% versus the Consensus Metrix estimate of +1.8%. However, JPM models a slight EBITDA shortfall ($62MM vs. CM $66MM) on incremental headwinds from inflation (freight and fuel are ~10% of COGS) and elevated promotional intensity. For FY27, BRBR has indicated price elasticity >1:1 and a low-single-digit headwind from lost distribution at a club customer, so LSD-MSD underlying growth could translate to roughly flat sales Y/Y, and the inflationary environment may run above the +MSD discussed last quarter. FY26/FY27 EBITDA estimates are cut to $285MM/$308MM from $288MM/$328MM. That said, shares trade at just ~7x CY27E P/E, roughly a 3x discount to the next lowest food company in coverage and versus ~11x for lower-growth