摩根大通维持FMC「中性」评级，将2027年12月目标价由12美元下调至6美元。公司预计2026年三季度营收仅0.65亿至1.25亿美元，远低于我们8.71亿美元的预测，因其通过降价和客户返利承担约6.25亿至6.75亿美元的抵减；剔除这些商业行动后当季营收约7.45亿美元。当季调整后EBITDA预计为负5.65亿至负5.10亿美元，剔除相关行动则为0.60亿至1.65亿美元。公司预计截至2026年9月30日仍符合债务契约，但计划未来一年就修改契约进行讨论以获取更大灵活性。折扣涉及以Rynaxypyr为主的多类产品，令市场担忧Cyazypyr专利到期的影响。2027年新品收入增量约1.25亿美元，难以抵消上述冲击，2027年EBITDA能否增长存疑。目标价基于2027年分部估值：二酰胺类3倍、新有效成分11倍、其余业务8倍。
FMC indicated that its revenues would be in a range of $65m-$125m for 3Q:26 versus our estimate of $871m. FMC appears to be absorbing $625m to $675m in charges, which are acting as an offset to revenues to lower prices and issue rebates to customers. FMC expects to be in compliance with its debt covenants as of September 30, 2026, but plans to engage in discussions to modify its covenants in the coming year. Revenues would have been about $745m for the quarter exclusive of these discounts and rebates, and adjusted EBITDA would have been in a range of $60m to $165m versus the reported negative $565m to negative $510m. The discounts apply to a range of products with Rynaxypyr the largest piece, which does not bode well for the effects of patent run-off for Cyazypyr. New product revenue growth of roughly $125m for 2027 is dwarfed by the 3Q:26 charges, putting EBITDA growth for 2027 in question. We lower our Dec-27 price target to $6 from $12 on a sum-of-the-parts basis (3x diamides, 11x n